Methodology

Revalio estimates revenue exposure from publicly observable signals and category benchmarks. Every figure is a modelled estimate, shown with its inputs, assumptions, sources and confidence. It is never a measurement of money lost.

How the range is built

1. Each input is fitted to a distribution with a stated 10th–90th percentile band.
2. The four inputs are combined by Monte Carlo simulation with a fixed seed, so the same scan always reproduces the same figures.
3. The published range is the 10th–90th percentile of the resulting distribution — not the arithmetic worst and best case, which would be far wider and much less informative.
4. Independent estimators that agree narrow the range; estimators that disagree widen it.
5. Where the business files accounts at Companies House, the estimate is capped by the maximum turnover its filing category permits. A figure that would exceed what a business of that filed size could legally bill is not quoted at all.

What this model cannot do

• Benchmark assumptions are category priors that have not been calibrated against measured outcomes. They are labelled "uncalibrated" throughout.
• Enquiry volume cannot be observed directly from a website. Where no demand signal is available, the figure shown is a category benchmark and confidence is reduced accordingly.
• The model treats its four inputs as independent. Real correlation between them would shift the range.
• A public scan cannot observe the sales process, so the conversion estimate is adjusted by no more than ±20% from the category benchmark.